Worker Shortage and Hiring Process

I'm really sorry that I keep picking on Federal Computer Week, but they published an article today about a severe worker shortage in the cybersecurity segment of the government space (Do federal hiring processes discourage...). This article went on about how difficult it is to get a job and the pain of the hiring process. But the article really misfired on a couple of levels. First, while there is an emerging need in the cybersecurity segment, the immediate concern is in the aqusition segment. The real problem is in Contract Specialists, Contract Officers and people qualified and capable of awarding contracts.

Second, and I can't believe this was not mentioned is the fact that we have been talking about the risk of a brain drain in the federal government for almost 10 years now. There has been a bubble of retirement eligible people for several years. The issue that I'm surprised to not find discussed is how the current economic climate is affecting the retirement bubble. Though I have no scientific evidence, I think that people are holding off on retirement for 2 reasons:

1. They lost a chunk of their nest egg in the recent devaluation of the stock market and
2. There is too much risk and uncertainty in the current economy to begin a retirement now.

On the first point, the market lost about half its value and has been slowly inching up ever since. I think that people will begin to cash out when they feel like their portfolio gets to the pre-recession level. Once they feel like they are even, then we will see a big wave to cash out. Unfortunately, that will likely cause a ripple recession all by itself.

About the same time people start to get to the pre-recession levels in their stocks, the economic outlook will be a lot more rosy and seem less risky. It will feel like a good time to begin a retirement and seem like it will have less risk.

No matter what though, I think that we are looking at a significant opportunity for the next generation to step up and step in to real positions of leadership as soon as the economy turns the corner the retirement bubble will begin to burst. The pace of retirements will quicken, the vacancy rate will increase. Over the short-term this will be painful because we will be forced to do the same amount of work with fewer people, but, as they say, necessity is the mother of invention. We will be forced to become more efficient with our hiring process.

In this, I speak from experience. I recently (2 weeks ago) participated in a panel reviewing applicants for a position. We reviewed 6 resumes, we met for 2 hours, discussed the strengths and weaknesses of each applicant and tabulated the scores. This was on a Wednesday. The offer to the candidate was made on Thursday. The candidate accepted the offer on Friday and started work on Monday. Sure, there was 2 weeks that had passed from the closing of the announcement until we met to consider candidates, but, when the need is urgent, the government can move at the same pace, or even faster than the industry.